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Ahead of the first Saturday in May, Quint takes a moment to sit with famous horse player Mike Maloney to discuss this year's Kentucky Derby. From interesting trivia, to historical facts, you don't want to miss out on this episode especially if you're thinking of laying down some green on the race. 

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*Nothing is totally bulletproof, because when it comes to investing there are zero guarantees! However, there are numerous ways you can help yourself succeed as an investor. This week we take a look at a few changes that just might make your plan more resilient than it is currently so you can succeed in reaching your goals

What's Your Required Return?

If you know what your savings goals are you should know the return it's going to take to get there. Your required return is that seemingly magic number that compounds your wealth from where to stand today to the goal you've been dreaming about. However, you need to know if that required return is practical, achievable, and fitting with your temperament. It's also an all-important factor in figuring out your investment allocation.

Not even at the point of having written goals and a plan to get there? Well, then maybe it's time for a LIFE Plan to get your goals on paper and develop a roadmap to get there.

Temperament Vs Requirement

We hear a lot about risk requirement when advisors and financial gurus talk about investing. But, what if risk requirement isn't everything? In fact, what if you're too conservative of an investor for the goals you desire. Or, what if you're far more aggressive than your goals dictate? We'll break down a few scenarios and what investors might consider in each.

Stocks and Bonds

It's common knowledge that stocks and bonds often move opposite of each other. In fact, this is one of the reasons investors typically split their portfolios between these two assets classes. But, what happens when this relationship changes? Like a bad date, something's gone awry lately in this typically quiet relationship. During the recent volatility in the stock market to start this year, we've seen both stocks and bond prices decline. We'll consider some of the reasons this might be occurring, what it means for investors' portfolios, and what we're doing here in response.

Is Gold Shining?

Much of the economic data we've seen lately seems to point to demand and prices picking up across the economic spectrum. If this trend continues to hold for any length of time, inflation may be just around the corner. This is one of the key reasons we've been looking at investments such as materials and gold lately. We'll break down why we're allocating into this shiny metal and our plan for it from here.

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Technology stocks have received a lot of investors' focus of the past few years. However, the tide may be shifting as rotation picks up and other sectors move into the spotlight. In fact, we may just see the excitement for FANG stocks be replaced by the BEG sectors.

Banks Are Interesting

Have you heard the news? Interest rates have been headed higher. What may be negative news for companies that borrow loads of money can be a boon to those that lend it. Banks face a potential tailwind as the interest rate environment is slowly shifting to their favor while at the same time they have yet to pass that favor on to their customers. Add in the fact that many large banks are investing in technology to streamline or expand their offerings as well as owning hugely profitable trade desks and you have a recipe for some bottom line boosts over the coming years. We'll take a look at the sector and examine where opportunity may lay.

Energy Gushes Higher

Oil broke out to recent highs this week, even as the President tweeted angst toward the move. As the economies both domestically and abroad pick up steam oil looks to power the continuing move higher. Many of the energy associated names have been unloved as prices stayed depressed for numerous year. Now, though, there may an opportunity to tap into a trend higher as the momentum seems to be in favor of higher prices for the near term.

Gold Begins to Shine

Many investors and market pundits have been concerned about inflation since the Fed started unleashing liquidity into the market a decade ago to end the Great Recession. So far, that trade has been fools gold. However, as the Fed looks ahead to continued rate hikes in an effort to get ahead on inflation many wonder if they're already behind the curve. Gold may just be setting up on both a technical and fundamental basis to offer investors a way to play inflation should it transpire from here.

 

Banks, Energy, and Gold are the areas that seem to be begging for investors attention as the tech rally potentially takes a break from leading stock ever higher. If this trend continues it may be the type of major rotation that sees the indices relatively flat while sectors underneath rotate and diverge. We'll be following this trade for sure in the coming months to see how it evolves.

 

Clients of Joule Financial own positions in financials, energy, and gold through both various individual company stocks as well as ETFs.  
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On this week's episode of Tape Talk we take a look at the quarter ahead and what might be in store for the market. Will inflation finally tick up? Will technology stocks take a back seat as other sectors catch up? How is sector rotation showing itself now? Find out this and more as we explore second quarter themes.

Stodgy Tech Stocks

Technology stocks have been widely in the news over the past few years. It's difficult to read about the markets without seeing mention of Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, or Microsoft. However, these few stocks do not encompass the entire tech universe. We'll take a look at some of the stodgier names that have been picking up lately. Is there potential here for investors to gain technology exposure at lower valuations? We'll ask that and more.

Volatility Is Back

Unless you've been living under a rock or in a coma you've likely realized that volatility was back in force during the first quarter of this year. The recent increase in daily market moves has highlighted the movement of money between sectors. Is this rotation a new normal or simply a passing fad?

Inflation Concerns

Inflation may finally show up to the party this year. We'll take a look at some of the key areas to participate in the inflation trade. Is gold right for investors' portfolios here? We consider both the technical set-up and the fundamentals in favor of investors' favorite inflation hedge to see if now may finally be the time to add the shimmering metal to their investment line-up.

Tangible Stuff

Speaking of inflation, what does inflation and a roaring economy mean for materials and inputs? We discuss our recent exposure to the steel sector and why that might make sense in this environment of increased focus on construction and infrastructure. 

Market Bounce

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Market Bounces Back

After the major indices were put through the ringer last week to the tune of a 6% decline they experience a small bounce back this week to end the quarter nearly flat for the year. The trend over recent declines has been that any dip is an opportunity to buy rather than a sign of a change in short-term trend. We'll take a look at the psychology of the recent move and examine whether the market is singing the same old tune or if the music might change this time.

South Korea Trade Deal

It made so few headlines you might have completely missed it, the US and South Korea last weekend came to terms on a trade deal around steel. Steel, huh? That may sound familiar from some other recent headlines where the industrial metal was in focus. We'll break down this latest news and what it might mean for global investors.

Facebook Gets Unliked by Investors (and the Government)

We touched on Facebook's recent faux pas in last week's episode but the situation continues to evolve as the stock continues its decline. This week we found out the FTC is looking into the company's sharing of private information and Congress is calling on Mark Zuckerberg to testify. While some people might be concerned about user declines we'll look at the recent issues from another angle by examining what this means for the advertisers from which Facebook derives its revenue.

Stocks In Play

Yes, the market has been rocky. However, assuming you're in this investing discipline for the long run you might be wondering where the opportunity may be here. We take a look at a few of the areas we're currently allocating and explore why they might be potential trends from here.

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Trump Tariffs, Round 2.

We're kicking off this week's show examining the latest round of tariffs enacted this week by Washington. Unlike the previous steel and aluminum tariffs announced week's ago, these new sanctions are specifically targetted towards the United States's largest trading partner, China. The key focus of the Trump administration's move is targeting the wide deficit in trade between our two countries. However, the market has not responded favorably to the news of these new penalties. We spend some time breaking down the new tariffs, what it means for the market, and where opportunity might exist.

 

Facebook Faux Pas

Don't call it a "data breach!" That's what the folks at Facebook are telling us on news of Cambridge Analytica's unauthorized access to data on 50-million Facebook users. The political consulting firm is under scrutiny after reports surfaced that it obtained information it should have otherwise not had access to and may have been able to use that to influence or interfere with political races during the election. However, Facebook may be facing greater public backlash for not making the issue public sooner and lacking in its public response to the data crises. We'll discuss what this might mean going forward for the company and tech stocks in general.

Where's the Opportunity?

As the market continues its pullback, global stocks get hit by tariff fears, and the beloved tech stocks wrestle with a tarnished public image, one has to ask where is the opportunity in today's market? We'll review a couple of the places we've been allocating into recently and some of the ones that we might add to soon.

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Interview from November 2015. In memory of Dr. Pearse Lyons, the Irish entrepreneur whose vision for improving global agriculture built a multibillion-dollar international business.

In late 2015 I had the unique opportunity to sit down with Dr. Pearse Lyons and discuss all things business and life. To say that Dr. Lyons had a positive impact on the state of Kentucky would be a gross understatement and I feel honored to have had the opportunity to glean a bit of wisdom from this incredible entrepreneur. In memory of Dr. Lyons, I hope you enjoy this interview as much as I enjoyed giving it. 

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While most of us were sipping a cocktail preparing to watch the fastest two minutes in sports, Mike Maloney was holding a ticket, which in two minutes could be worth well over $200,000. The year was 2007 and Mike was gathered with close friends and relatives in a private room within Keeneland, 75 miles down the road from Churchill Downs. The bell rang, the gates swung open and Street Sense broke on the inside taking home the first leg of the famous Triple Crown at 9/2.

You’ll have to read the book to learn how that day played out for Mike, which is the opening chapter of his incredible page turner, Betting with an Edge, available through the DRF store HERE. While the book spends many chapters knee deep in the science and art behind handicapping, there are countless stories that had me on the edge of my seat and making this one of my truly ‘must reads’ for 2018.

Mike is a born and raised Kentucky boy with roots going back many generations. His first experience within the horse playing world came through his father, who Mike describes as being a ‘fantastic handicapper’ but to his detriment an ‘overly aggressive bettor.’

Having been a professional horse player for the last 18 years, Mike clearly has been able to strike a balance between the two tenants, which has resulted in not only a professional career but a private office within the confines of Red Mile in Lexington, complete with a semi-private bet taker.

Mike Maloney is regarded as one of the world’s elite horse players and has the stories to back this up.  Whether it was a busted day with his father, sitting in a pickup truck, stuck in a parking snafu outside of Churchill on Derby day or nailing his first big ticket as the single holder of a $75,000 pick 6 in the early 80’s, this podcast is a must listen and the book is a must read.

Enjoy!

Where To From Here?

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After a few weeks of increased volatility and pullbacks across stock indices, a subtle calm has returned to the market. Stocks trended higher through the week with little fanfare. Is it time for investors to breath a sigh of relief from the recent market correction?

Psychology and Your Portfolio

Many of the market's movements can be attributed to the psychology of market participants. After a ten percent pullback in the markets, accompanied by soaring volatility, the recent week has been marked by a sense of calm and a steady move higher in stocks. Much of this calm may simply be investors' sense of relief that the market has "stopped going down" and is why an investor who lost 10% from recent highs suddenly feels better while the market has recovered only half of that move. It's also the same psychology that makes the recent lows an import point to watch.

Inflation Perks Up

This week's CPI numbers highlighted inflation picking up steam. In fact, shortly after the numbers were released the market saw a pre-opening move lower to the tune of 1%. The question investors now must face is whether inflation is getting ahead of the Fed and their tightening cycle. If so, then some of the key inflation names may be an option for investors to find opportunity in this environment. We'll highlight a few of the areas we've been looking at recently to find potential opportunity in this stage of the economy.

Time For A Plan?

If you're concerned with the recent moves in the market or how inflation could affect your portfolio, it may be time to run your numbers. Completing our LIFE Plan process will give you some of the confidence you need to know your investments are aligned with your required rate of return.  Contact us to find out more.

What’s Your Plan?

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As volatility in the markets remains high this week it may be time to consider what your plan is for the turbulence. While this may depend on your life stage it will also depend on your temperament.  On this week's episode, we'll provide a look behind the scenes of how we're managing through the recent market pullback and ask some pointed questions that might help you develop your own plan as well.

Danger On The Horizon?

It's been over a year since we've seen volatility like this in the markets. However, it doesn't matter how much time transpires between pullbacks, they can always be a bit nerve-wracking. Becuase of this, it's important to understand where you are in your investing journey and how that might affect the steps you might consider taking. For instance, are you in the accumulation stage of your investing journey with your goals still far off? If that's the case you might be best served by steadily contributing, even if the market continues its decline from here. Are you getting close to retirement or already there? If so, you might want to make sure you know what the plan is for your investments, what that means for your retirement journey through the regular ups, and downs on the market.

Changing With The Market

Since many of our listeners, and clients, are in the life stages of approaching retirement or already retired, managing risk is one of the key components of their plan. We'll take a behind the scenes look into what we're doing as investment advisors, in a market such as this, to attempt to protect portfolios from the potential for large swings in the stock market.

Index or Momentum Fund?

Are all those popular index funds really just a momentum fund in disguise? Have the indices become lopsided? We'll take a look at how an index fund works and why it might not be much different from the momentum strategies that many index adherents talk down. After all, many index funds follow market cap weighted indices which, by their nature, overweight higher moving stocks and underweight lagging stocks. While this momentum can be incredibly useful on the upward moves in the market it is also possible that same momentum could accelerate moves to the downside. 

What's Our Plan?

Volatility rarely vanishes quickly. If this is a change in mood for the markets, investors might want to settle in for increased volatility going forward. With that in mind we've begun prudently cutting positions in our client portfolios to free resources up to find new opportunities should the market continue lower. Now that you know our plan, what's yours? Maybe now is the time to give yourself some peace of mind and complete your LIFE Plan.

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